Happy belated Thanksgiving, y’all. I came down with a case of COVID early last week, so instead of family, food, and football, I spent the day in a feverish fog barely able to eat. But at least a got in a lot of reading. #silverlining
Back to normal this week. Let’s go…
WHAT’S NEW
There are protests in China, the yield curve is out of whack, crypto is in a tailspin, everyone in Tech is getting laid off, nobody can afford a house, the war in Ukraine won’t end, and the railroads might shut down. It feels like we are entering some sort of economic and political Danger Zone.
As always, the news media loves getting the populace riled up and worried. Will there be a recession? What about unemployment? Will the market take a nosedive again? What will the Fed do about interest rates? When will Putin give up? The headlines flash across our screens like little ad-supported anxiety bombs.
But trying to predict the future is a fool’s errand, and worrying is a waste of time. It’s better focus on what’s in our control, right here and right now, and make a plan. Once we’ve taken care of those things, it’s time to rest easy. The future will come - that’s a guarantee - and it will probably be way weirder than we thought. Especially if you live in China. Everything is different in China.
Remember Seneca’s maxim: “There are more things to alarm us than to harm us, and we suffer more often in apprehension than reality.” In other words: we’ll be OK.
This newsletter is sponsored by:
Real advice for real people.
MONEY READS
👉🏼 Glamour by Josh Brown
“One thing I’ve learned in this business is that if you’re doing business with someone who is determined to trick you, the odds of them succeeding are pretty good. Sam Bankman-Fried appears to have been among the most talented tricksters of all time.”
👉🏼 Do We Implement Portfolio Construction Completely Backwards? by Cullen Roche
“Most of the stuff we call investing (like buying stocks) is not actually investing at all. It’s reallocation of savings and the value of that savings changes based on how companies invest. It’s a subtle but important distinction because treating your portfolio like a sexy get rich “investing” portfolio is a very different mentality from treating your portfolio like your savings.“
👉🏼 Learning to Live by Nick Maggiulli
“But, redundancy can do a lot more than just help you pack for your next trip. It can help improve your finances too… More redundancy means more layers of protection.”
RECOMMENDATIONS
🎧 PODCAST: Boxing with Ghosts | Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History: Addendum
Everyone knows that today’s athletes would dominate stars from earlier eras. It doesn’t matter which sport - football, soccer, track, basketball - they’re just too big, too fast, and too well-trained. But Dan, with the help of historian Mike Silver, spends an hour making a very convincing argument that boxing is unique; today’s champions wouldn’t stand a chance against past fighters from 50, 80, or even 100 years ago. Why? It all comes down to technique and toughness.
📰 NEWSLETTER: Areopagus
I recently discovered The Cultural Tutor, an anonymous tweeter of lovely threads on history, art, and culture. Areopagus is his/her weekly newsletter. After reading the most recent edition, on topics ranging from Lord Byron to the Spartans, it was an easy subscribe. Whoever this person is, they are well-read, smart, and a beautiful writer - a deadly combo. I can’t wait to dive in.
📖 BOOK: The Children of Men by P.D. James
The narrative revolves around the question of what happens to a society when babies stop being born and there is no future for humanity. The book is set in 2021 but was published in the early 90s, so it’s cute when the main character opens a newspaper or makes a landline call. But for fans of dystopian fiction, this book is worth a read. I also plan on reading more of P.D. James, who was not on my radar until a few weeks ago.
THE JUKEBOX
It’s a rap battle between Kraft Singles and his patrician counterparts, gouda, brie, and sharp cheddar. Yes, it’s as dumb as it sounds. But it’s also amazing.
MY LIFE
I was in Sarasota a few weeks ago for a conference hosted by a home services consulting firm, where a few hundred business owners in the trades (plumbers, electricians, etc.) were learning how to grow and operationalize their companies1. At times, the conference felt like an Amway convention, with fist-pumpy motivational speeches and 2011 Rihanna on loop. But once I got past all the hype, it was easy to see the value these consultants provide.
For better or worse, trades businesses2 mostly fit the stereotype: a recession-proof cash cow run by an old-school operator with no college degree. He can replace a roof or fix a furnace with his eyes closed, but doesn’t know much about accounting, treasury, or HR - let alone social media marketing.
That’s where the consultants come in, providing a (pricey) bundle of services that promise to increase revenue and decrease hassle. Apparently it works, too. I talked to plenty of owners that happily write five-figure membership checks. That might sound like a lot, but for a seven- or eight-figure business, it barely makes a dent in the operating budget.
A couple months ago I had no idea that home services consulting was a thing, but it’s a fascinating niche filling a gaping hole in the marketplace. It just goes to show that if you want to be a successful entrepreneur, you just gotta add value. Add enough value and the money will start rolling in.
Sometimes an insight comes from the least expected place.
🤙🏼 Pura vida,
Sent with 💛 from Pittsburgh
Disclaimer: Nothing in this newsletter should ever be considered investment advice.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share this newsletter and let me know what you think.
Why the hell was I there? Good question. Turns out, my best friend owns a plumbing business and invited me along to help implement some best practices.
The “home services“ industry is a fascinating sub-sector of the economy, not too dissimilar from financial planning: It’s dominated by smaller, local shops offering non-scalable services, run by long-time owners desperate for talent and someone a generation younger to take the reins. While the actual work couldn’t be more different, these two service businesses are more similar than you’d think.