Scared Money

Apr 09, 2023

Hello, friends. Happy Easter, Passover, and Masters Sunday! Welcome to the eighth edition of Paid in Full, a tradition unlike any other.

WHAT’S NEW

If you’ve been following the financial news cycle the past month, I wouldn’t blame you for being freaked out. The banking system is collapsing, the Fed has lost its mind, the Dollar is done, and a recession is just around the corner (Sell! Sell! Sell!). Factor in the general malaise in both the private and public markets, and it feels like everyone across the spectrum (with some exceptions, lol) has been infected with the Doomer virus. But while this is business-as-usual for traditional media, they’re not the only culprits.

An unhealthy dose of fear-mongering is coming from a cohort I like to call WIDs (Wealthy Intellectual Dudes). With too much money and not enough humility, this cadre of mononymous elites (Dalio, Sam, Burry, Ackman, Balaji, etc.) have taken the Cassandra stance to the next level. Not content with the old tropes - like overpopulation and nuclear war - they’ve jumped the shark into new(ish) territories of hyperinflation, government bankruptcy, and the decimation of civilization one paperclip at a time.

One could give them the benefit of the doubt and assume their goals are altruisitic, just trying to help humanity avoid an existential crisis. But pardon me, your humble skeptic, for not trusting the motives of the latest batch of secular Savonarolas. With no need for more money, the WIDs - just like the media - are trying to extract another precious resource: your attention. Their ultimate goal? Becoming a Thought Leader.

But here’s the fundamental error: A high IQ and an even higher net worth does not correlate with predictive success, even (especially?) if it’s happened once or twice before. A word to the wise (and the WIDs): Stop trying to predict the future, it’s impossible. It’s OK to prepare for chaos, but don’t waste time worrying. And definitely don’t liquidate your portfolio. Take a walk, play with your kids, have a drink. Relax. Every day is Sunday.

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MONEY READS

👉🏼 The End of Silicon Valley (Bank) by Ben Thompson

“Silicon Valley Bank, meanwhile, processed $42 billion in withdrawals in 24 hours. It was the speed, fueled by zero distribution costs for both rumors and withdrawals, that was so destabilizing for an entity predicated on arbitraging time.”

👉🏼 Why Not One Fund? by Cullen Roche

“In general, the asset management industry has mastered the art of selling complexity in exchange for high fees. This often creates the illusion of sophistication and in reality results in inefficiencies. But… can simple be too simple?”

👉🏼 Financial regulation is just debt covenants by interfluidity

“Just as private covenants are negotiated so that creditors can usurp control from shareholders early on in the dangerous-risk-taking process, financial regulation aspires to prompt corrective action, under which regulators exert control before shareholders can put too big a hole in balance sheets that the state guarantees.”

RECOMMENDATIONS

📖 BOOK: Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin

I loved every bit of this downright gorgeous novel, from the first sentence to the last (literally). Even though, like everyone else, I rated it 5-stars, I’m kind of surprised how popular it was since it doesn’t fit the mold of a typical bestseller1. But I guess that just speaks to its brilliance.

🎙️ COMEDY SPECIALS: Shane Gillis and Stavros Halkias

I guess I’ve been living under a rock the past decade, because I hadn’t heard of either of these (super famous) guys until last week. But, hot damn, they are funny. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that they have a distinct Yinzer sound.

💻 ARTICLE: How to Get Over the Fear of Creating Things by Nat Eliason

Nat outlines four tricks he uses to overcome the anxiety of putting himself out there, on the internet - a fear I’m all too familiar with. This post is a must-read for anyone thinking about creating online or just starting out.

THE JUKEBOX

FKJ is one of the most talented musicians on the planet. Tom Misch2 is no slouch himself. Together, they are electric.

MY LIFE

With spring and fall deemed obsolete by Mother Nature, these days Pittsburgh has just two seasons: There's winter. And there's summer, when residents emerge like zombies after shivering in the dark for half the year3. Winters can be so isolating that I can, no lie, go months without seeing my next-door neighbors. Not so much as a glimpse of a family that, every night, eats dinner 25 feet from where I watch Seinfeld re-runs. It’s a tragedy.

The silver lining is that it’s a great time to hunker down. A cold Saturday in February is perfect for watching movies, playing video/board games, or just napping. It’s even better for productivity (like banging out mid-wit Substack posts). When the sun is shining and the birds are chirping, getting work done becomes that much harder.

The psychological delta between winter's valley and summer’s peak might be the highest in the country4. So, after six months of hibernation, the city flat-out comes alive in May. The jet skis are zooming, the food trucks are booming, and entire neighborhoods are blooming. The transformation is magical.

This summer, I plan on experiencing all that Pittsburgh has offer - the bars, restaurants, and coffee shops. of course. But also the people. There's a bustling community of talented creatives, scholars, and entrepreneurs living here (a fact I haven’t fully appreciated until recently), in every field from design to music to robotics. My goal is to meet with as many of them as possible, as often as possible,5 traversing the city for a good drink and a great story. It should be both fun and rewarding. I just hope I'll have time to see my neighbors.

🤙🏼 Pura vida,

Sent with 💛 from Pittsburgh

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