Happy Hannukkah, Christmas, and New Year to all you beautiful people! I hope everyone stayed productive, healthy, and adventurous these past twelve months. This will be the last newsletter of the year as we say farewell to 2022. See you in 2023…
WHAT’S NEW
There’s no other way to put it, 2022 was a weird year. While the war in Ukraine raged on, we saw the greatest World Cup match in history and a Chinese uprising. 50 Cent stole the halftime show and Tom Cruise stole our hearts (again). The Queen, Franco, and both Paulie’s died. And Will Smith slapped the sh*t out of Chris Rock on live TV.
As for the financial markets: Inflation spiked and I-bonds became all the rage, while SPACs fell out of favor. Elon trolled then sued then bought then ran Twitter, then trolled some more. Interest rates went up (thanks, Jerome!) and so did the dollar. Stocks and bonds both went down, and the 60/40 portfolio embarrassed itself. LIBOR finally went away. AMC kept doing meme-worthy things. Cryptocurrencies crashed, crypto firms went bankrupt, and crypto founders went on the lam (or on a media tour). The nickel market briefly went haywire. And much, much more.
Yes, 2022 really was weird. But was it any weirder than 2021? Or 2020?1 What about 1920? Or, for that matter, 1520? Moral of the story: times are always weird; there’s no such thing as “normal.” There never was and never will be, not about the economy and certainly not about humanity.
So what will happen in 2023 and beyond? I have no friggin’ clue, and neither does anyone else.2 The future is unknowable. Weird things will happen. Just embrace it.3
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MONEY READS
👉🏼 Financial Gaslighting by Bob Seawright
“He then explained that people frequently invest in hedge funds for the same reason they buy a Rolex – they are expressions of status available only to the wealthy. This status is fundamental to hedge fund allure despite dreadful performance, and hedge fund marketing takes full advantage.”
👉🏼 Trading Games by Nick Maggiulli
“This is why it’s such a fallacy to look at some asset and think, “If I had only bought back then…” Because if you had bought “back then” you probably would have sold “back then” too!”
👉🏼 "A Solution in Search of a Problem" is a Low-Rates Phenomenon by Byrne Hobart
“But there's a feature of the outside world that also has a major impact: solutions-in-search-of-a-problem and toys-in-search-of-real-world-use are both less costly and more valuable in a world of lower real interest rates.”
RECOMMENDATIONS
🎧 PODCAST: Founders
Somehow I just came across this podcast recently, even though it’s been around for years. David Senra studies history’s most successful entrepreneurs - from Rockefeller to Bezos - and distills the lessons into one-hour chunks of audio. I love the backstories, the takeaways, and David’s no-nonsense style. Subscribed.
💻 ARTICLE: Hugging the X-Axis by David Perrell
A beautiful essay on the significant downsides of excess optionality, a concept that has reached almost cult-like status with the under-40 crowd. There’s always somewhere better to eat, a more beautiful country to visit, the perfect partner. But real satisfaction comes from sticking to one thing - for a very long time. As a recovering commitment-phobe myself, this resonates a lot.
📖 BOOK: A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin
AKA the Game of Thrones book series. If you’ve seen the show, you know how great the storyline is, but the books take it to another level. Martin is a master at both world-building and portraying human nature. Pro tip: the books are incredibly long so get the audiobooks. They are an experience unto themselves.
THE JUKEBOX
This song came out the year I was born and is peak 80s. Funny how this sound is totally back in style again.
MY LIFE
This year was also weird for me, personally. My second baby was born and my first baby became a teenager, I finally finished painting my house, and I became a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™. By some miracle (read: an amazing wife), I was able to travel a decent amount.4 And last, but not least, I became an entrepreneur.
Who knew that any of this would happen when I finished grad school in the teeth of the GFC. Now, almost 15 years later (and 20 since I graduated high school5), I’ve finally found my home. I believe 2023 will bring me more fulfillment, more creativity, and more purpose than I’ve ever had. And that makes me damn excited.
It’s been a ride, and life right now is good. But I need to do a better job of slowing down and savoring these precious moments, because the glass is already broken.
🤙🏼 Pura vida,
Sent with 💛 from Pittsburgh
Disclaimer: Nothing in this newsletter should ever be considered investment advice.
Thanks for reading! Please share or subscribe to this newsletter. And, as always, let me know what you think.
Hell no.
If you hear/read/see someone making predictions, it’s usually best to run in the other direction.
It helps to have a solid financial foundation and some semblance of a plan.
Denver, New York, Austin, and Sarasota.
WTF!