The Prognosticator of Pittsburgh

Hello, friends! I hope you had a wonderful holiday season and haven’t already given up on your resolutions. I’m sorry about the long hiatus; things have been hectic. Turns out onboarding half a dozen clients at once is a lot of work! Carving out the space to write intelligently is challenging, but here are. Let’s get to it…

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WHAT’S NEW

I have to be honest with you: Another reason it took me so long to publish PIF was the dearth of interesting news stories (or my lack of imagination) during the first three weeks of 2023. It feels like we’ve been reading, thinking, and griping about the same topics (the Fed’s meddling, AI’s impact, Elon’s shenanigans, FTX’s balance sheet, and TikTok’s future) for months.

Which means I’ve been struggling to find something worthwhile to bloviate about. Layoffs? Nobody seems to really care about 40,000 coders and bankers losing their jobs. Davos prostitutes? $2,500 a night in Switzerland sounds about right (I hear it’s an expensive country). The debt ceiling? It’s been increased 78 times since 1960 and it will inevitably be increased again¹. Meh, meh, and meh.

So what’s a burgeoning finance writer supposed to, you know, write about? It’s time to turn to a trope used by blocked-up writers for centuries: The Prediction. What follows are my own prognostications for the coming year…

I predict that the stock market will fluctuate, that a politician will be disgraced, and that a world-changing breakthrough be mostly ignored by mainstream media. I predict that Christopher Nolan’s next movie will be a hit, that Goldman will be wrong, and that the Super Bowl halftime show will be overrated. I predict that sh*t will happen. I predict we’ll make it through. I predict an unpredictable 2023.

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MONEY READS

👉🏼 Are Declining Interest Rates Responsible for Stock Growth? by Nick Maggiulli

“While declining interest rates have been responsible for stock growth (at least at the extremes), interest rate changes don’t always determine our investment destiny. What does though? Fundamentals.”

👉🏼 The Long-Term Wins by Ben Carlson

“If you wish to earn long-run returns, you cannot rid yourself of the market’s short-run ups and downs. That’s the trade-off we all make.”

👉🏼 Twin Infinitives by Drew Austin

“In short, [low interest rates] create an economic climate where everyone feels like they’re winning, leading to a multitude of unserious projects and efforts to solve nonexistent problems or build products that nobody needs. This is why you can’t imagine ever using 95 percent of the new apps you hear about.”

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RECOMMENDATIONS

🎧 PODCAST: Optimizing life for maximum fulfillment | Peter Attia’s The Drive

Bill Perkins recently wrote a book about maximizing "net fulfillment over net worth.” It sounded interesting, so I put it on my list. But after listening to this podcast, easily one of the best I’ve heard in a long time, the book shot to the top². This interview was the right message from the right guy hitting me at just the right time. I've alreadly listened twice and have it queued up for a third time. It's that powerful.

📺 TV SHOW: The White Lotus season 2

For as boring and unwatchable as House of the Dragon³ was, The White Lotus was the polar opposite - gripping and intriguing. There’s nothing I could say that hasn’t already been said about this season; everybody loved it. Four out of five stars. I can’t wait for season 3.

🎹 MUSIC: Magic City Hippies

A few weeks ago I was checking out the lineups at local venues and stumbled across “Miami's alt-pop psych-funk party starters." I opened Spotify and, after listening to a few songs, was sold. Their show is going to be fun.

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THE JUKEBOX

An impromptu saxophone battle on the subway is exactly what YouTube was made for, pure internet joy. If you don’t dance, clap, or at least smile during this, you have no soul. (To save some time, skip to the 1:30 mark.)

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MY LIFE

I think my theme for 2023 is going to be 💫CONNECTIONS💫. Basically, I want to expand my online and in-person friend group, making it both wider (number of friends) and deeper (more than just surface-level conversations). A big step towards that goal was joining the Find the Others Community and a few local meetup-type groups in the last few weeks.

I also need to practice being a better friend - less selfish, more selfless. That means carving out more time for conversations, becoming a great listener, asking if there’s anything I can help with, and offering unvarnished encouragement - all things I can certainly work on this year.

But even outside of the “friend framework,” I need to be open to more spontaneous encounters. Some new rules for when I’m out of the house: Stop hunching over your phone, keep your head up, view your surroundings. Make eye contact, smile, say hello. Meet someone with an interesting story to tell. Don't even ask their name. Shake hands knowing you’ll probably never see them again.

All connections are beautiful, even (especially?) the short ones.

🤙🏼 Pura vida,

Sent with 💛 from Pittsburgh

Disclaimer: Nothing in this newsletter should ever be considered investment advice.

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1. Chamath: “There is no magic number at which this experiment that’s called America fails.”

2. I’ll dive in once I finally finish Paul Millard’s masterpiece.

3. And this is coming from a hardcore GOT fan. I tried to like it, I really did. But after 4.5 episodes I had to quit (with spousal approval, of course). Maybe the next spinoff will create a character that is remotely interesting.